Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Irrational panic leads to misallocation of resources: an example

Slate.com has an interesting article about the what really causes most cancers in the United States. I'm guessing that many of the things you've heard of that cause cancer wouldn't make a list of quantitatively significant causes.

The article has a thesis for why this happens, and it talks about the consequences. In general irrational fear of small probability events leads to a mis allocation of resources to prevent these small probability events.

This is a theme I've noticed a lot in modern society; we get all worked up over something and then we expend lots of costly effort doing our best to prevent a rare occurrence, while meanwhile the more likely but less dramatic cause gets short shrift. What's worse, typically the cost is paid in dollars and freedom.

The Book of Mormon describes a secret combination (think conspiracy theory) that would exist in the latter days (today) Ether 8:22-25:

22 And whatsoever nation shall uphold such secret combinations, to get power and gain, until they shall spread over the nation, behold, they shall be destroyed; for the Lord will not suffer that the blood of his saints, which shall be shed by them, shall always cry unto him from the ground for vengeance upon them and yet he avenge them not.
23 Wherefore, O ye Gentiles, it is wisdom in God that these things should be shown unto you, that thereby ye may repent of your sins, and suffer not that these murderous combinations shall get above you, which are built up to get power and gain—and the work, yea, even the work of destruction come upon you, yea, even the sword of the justice of the Eternal God shall fall upon you, to your overthrow and destruction if ye shall suffer these things to be.
24 Wherefore, the Lord commandeth you, when ye shall see these things come among you that ye shall awake to a sense of your awful situation, because of this secret combination which shall be among you; or wo be unto it, because of the blood of them who have been slain; for they cry from the dust for vengeance upon it, and also upon those who built it up.
25 For it cometh to pass that whoso buildeth it up seeketh to overthrow the freedom of all lands, nations, and countries; and it bringeth to pass the destruction of all people, for it is built up by the devil, who is the father of all lies; even that same liar who beguiled our first parents, yea, even that same liar who hath caused man to commit murder from the beginning; who hath hardened the hearts of men that they have murdered the prophets, and stoned them, and cast them out from the beginning. (emphasis added)

I can't help but wonder, if we're constantly panicking about borderline irrelevant things, that maybe there's some kind of more nefarious purpose at work. There are lots of irrelevant things to panic about, who gets to decide what is deemed panic worthy? It's hard for me to believe that there's some shadow organization pulling the strings on each and every alarmist story, but perhaps fostering conditions such that this kind of behavior is encouraged could be easily and subtlety done.

In any case I'm glad someone pointed out that eating a folic-acid free muffin while chatting on a hands-free so your cellphone can be 5 feet from you while sunbathing is just a little silly.

5 comments:

Cougarg said...

I have a harder time understanding John's posts, but I laugh just as much. Just because they are so John-like.

Cougarg said...

I just looked back at the last several posts, and I am the only one to comment. I hope I'm not scaring away potential posters. I don't know why that would be the case, but I hope it is not.

Concerning the actual post, I have actually wondered about nefarious forces at work in the food industry. The diet and food fads generate a lot of confusion. And I think confusion is a tool of the Adversary.

Anonymous said...

AAAAUGGGHHHHH COUGARG IS SCARING ME AWAY!!!! GET HIM OUT OF HERE!!!!!

John Robinson said...

The blog administrators would like to post formally on the record that cougarg's posts have been edited to be very scary, but they appear exactly the same only to him.

Hope that clears things up.

Cougarg said...

Thanks for the chuckle